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Prediction and Path of Carbon Peak in Shannan Region of Tibet Based on Multi Scenario Analysis
ZHANG Yang, ZHANG Jinbo, JIANG Shaorui, GUO Huaicheng, WANG Shuhang, FU Zhenghui
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2024, 60 (2): 350-356.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.095
Abstract40)   HTML    PDF(pc) (766KB)(18)       Save
This study takes Shannan City in Tibet as the research object, and proposes peak paths and specific policy suggestions based on the prediction results of carbon emission peak values in different scenarios by constructing a GM-ImPACT model. The results show that, the current economic growth rate coupled with strong emission reduction strategies is the optimal path for Shannan City to achieve carbon peak. Shannan City is expected to achieve carbon peak 10 years ahead of schedule in 2024, reducing its total carbon emissions by 20.72%, and its carbon emission intensity will drop by 7.89 percentage points higher than the national level. The proposed model framework could be applied to explore the optimal path of carbon peak for other cities.
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Evaluation Method of Watershed Water Environment Carrying Capacity under Climate Change Scenarios
ZHANG Yang, FU Zhenghui, ZHANG Yaran, GUO Huaicheng, JIANG Xia, WANG Shuhang
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2023, 59 (2): 242-250.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.012
Abstract269)   HTML    PDF(pc) (4590KB)(164)       Save
The Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai Province was selected as the research case. Considering the close relationship between climate change and hydrological cycle of the basin and the severe impact on the water environment system, the evaluation method system of water environment carrying capacity of the basin under the impact of climate change was constructed. The matching of time and space scales was carried out from the perspective of systematicness and integrity, so as to accurately evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle of the basin scale and carry out the calculation of water environment carrying capacity. Finally, the assessment and analysis of the dynamic change of the basin water environmental carrying capacity under the influence of climate change was established. The research results show that climate warming would lead to a decline in the water environmental carrying capacity of the Huangshui River Basin, but with the passage of time, the water environmental carrying capacity under the future climate change scenario would generally improve.
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Consistency Evaluation of Ecological Carrying Capacity and Industrial Layout Based on “Three Lines One Permit” Index System
LU Wentao, YIN Caichun, ZHANG Yang, FU Zhenghui, GUO Huaicheng, YU Lei, LIU Yi
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2021, 57 (4): 749-755.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2021.061
Abstract714)   HTML    PDF(pc) (1031KB)(150)       Save
Combined with the work of “Three Lines One Permit” in China, this study constructed a corresponding index system, and selected Qingpu District of Shanghai as the case study area to evaluate the consistency of regional ecological carrying capacity and industrial layout by both single factor and comprehensive index methods. The results show that: 1) the single factor ecological carrying rate can reflect the key limiting factors, while the comprehensive index can directly show the cumulative impact of regional industries on ecological carrying capacity; 2) the conflict between industrial layout and ecological space and soil environmental quality is less in Qingpu District, but the contradiction between industrial layout and water, atmospheric environment is prominent, which results in the overload of ecological environment and the disharmony between ecological carrying capacity and industrial layout; 3) the regions with prominent consistency problems are basically the same as the key units of environmental control, indicating that the index system is objective and feasible, can provide reference for relevant evaluation and research work, and has the feasibility of nationwide promotion. It is suggested to strengthen pollutant emission control for the key control units. 
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Estimation of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution Loads Based on Improved Export Coefficient Model
HU Qing, GUO Huaicheng, WANG Yuqi, ZHANG Yang, LI Zheng, FU Zhenghui, LU Wentao
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2021, 57 (4): 739-748.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2021.049
Abstract661)   HTML    PDF(pc) (1455KB)(93)       Save
The Dianchi watershed Basin was selected as a typical watershed. Considering the differences of regional natural geography, hydrometeorology and human activities, using 1 km×1 km grid data, the detailed simulation calculation of the pollutants entering the water source of agricultural sources is carried out. The rainfall driving factors, terrain driving factors, surface runoff factor, underground storage/groundwater runoff factor and interception factor are obtained. The average comprehensive water inflow coefficients of TN and TP from agricultural sources in Dianchi Basin in 2016 are 0.447 and 0.342 respectively, and the actual water inflow loads of TN and TP from agricultural sources in 2016 are 577.39 t and 167.62 t respectively. The results show that the discharge of agricultural source pollutants and the load of influent water have significant spatial variation in Dianchi Lake Basin. 81.0% of nitrogen and 74.2% of phosphorus were concentrated in Caohai land area and the north coast of the open sea. The largest emission was in the upper reaches of Panlong River, with nitrogen and phosphorus accounting for 21.9% and 20.2% respectively. It is also found that livestock and poultry breeding account for more than 90% of the total TN and TP emissions of from agricultural sources, which should be the focus of agricultural source pollution control. 
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Consistency Evaluation of Regional Ecological Carrying Capacity and Industrial Layout Based on Spatial Grid
LU Wentao, FU Zhenghui, GUO Huaicheng, LÜ Hongdi, YU Lei
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2020, 56 (5): 971-974.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2020.072
Abstract615)   HTML    PDF(pc) (504KB)(141)       Save
Based on the spatial grid of the kilometer scale, the basic evaluation unit is constructed. The consistency evaluation of regional ecological carrying capacity and industrial layout are carried out. The Qingpu District of Shanghai is used as a research case. The results show that proposed method can effectively identify the regional ecological carrying capacity and the spatial distribution of industrial pressure, and evaluate the consistency of the regional ecological carrying capacity and industrial layout. The average industrial pressure index of Qingpu District is 0.51, and the ecological carrying capacity index is 0.25. The ecological carrying capacity of Qingpu district has a high consistency with the industrial layout, and the average consistency index is 3.12.
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Ecological Tension Index Assessment in China Based on RBFN Model
WANG Yuqi, CHENG Shupeng, LU Wentao, FU Zhenghui, GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2019, 55 (1): 182-188.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2018.091
Abstract868)   HTML    PDF(pc) (1601KB)(205)       Save

This paper select related indexes of ecological tension to establish the RBFN (radial basis function network) model, which is trained and tested according to the research results of ecological tension at different time in different regions. Then, the model is used to evaluate ecological tension of China’s 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in 2008 and 2013, and the evaluation results visualization expressed with GIS. The results show that the half area is the ecological pressure security status, and Beijing has the largest ecological pressure all the time; 22 provincial administrative regions’ ecological tension are aggravated from 2008 to 2013; regionally, the ecological pressure is the largest in North China, and the smallest in the northwest.

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Study of an Optimum Population under the Water Environmental Restriction
FU Zhenghui, LU Wentao, ZHAO Haojin, GUO Huaicheng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2018, 54 (1): 157-161.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.120
Abstract980)   HTML12)    PDF(pc) (361KB)(221)       Save

Considering per person GDP, water resource and sewage discharge of per capita, an inexact fuzzy linear programming model is applied for regional population management in Xining, China. The result indicated that the Xining’s population would be [282.16×104, 324.00×104], [241.94×104, 282.88×104] and [220.32×104, 261.93×104] under the scenario of low, medium and high degree of satisfaction. Meanwhile, the shortage of available water resource would be the limiting factor on the growth of regional population.

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